Educational Futurists and the Doubling

Welcome to our sixth podcast of the school year. We hope to inspire, instruct and challenge you this year as educators whether you are teaching from home or a campus. Our goal is to equip anyone devoted to discipleship-based Christian education. I also want to remind you that while supplies last we will send you a free copies of my book, Disciplining this Generation for a Digital World, to anyone that sends us an email. I will have the details at the end of the podcast.

The last few podcasts we have been speaking about the concept that every educator is a futurist. This year our campus school and online school have enrolled 133 kindergarten students. These amazing little lives have come into our care in a most amazing, yet volatile time. They will graduate in the year 2022. The year 2022 sounds like a date we might read in a science fiction novel. This last week I became a grandfather for the first time. My son and daughter-in-law just had a beautiful baby girl. She will graduate from grade 12 in the year 2027. I suspect that more than any other time in human history, thinking 13 years into the future, or for my son and his wife, 18 years into the future, it is harder than it has ever been. This is not to say that there haven’t been more difficult times and places to live. I can’t imagine what it would have been like to live in Germany in the 1940’s or Rome in 413 when the Barbarians altered everything about their sedentary lifestyles. I have traveled extensively and it is rare to find places where our comfort and security is comparable to British Columbia, Canada. But what makes the future more uncertain than any time in human history is this simple principle of “the Doubling.” It is undoubtedly altering almost everything about our human experience.

Our generation, lead on by the optimism of our parents generation, have unlocked the proverbial genie from his bottle, the computer chip. This invention has fueled four worldwide culture transformations that not only affect education but everything about our world. These four transformations are a Communication Revolution that has already superseded the renaissance, Globalization that has made the world flat, Informationalism that altering our very mental framework and Biotechnology that is incorporating these transformations within our very bodies and brains. I will talk about each of these as they pertain to our role as educators over the next few weeks in our podcasts. These are also the reason I wrote Discipling this Generation for a Digital World two and a half years ago. Today I want to show you the reason this is all happening so fast and why 2022 seems so far off into the future.

But as we venture into this phenomenon I want to be clear that I am not suggesting an unbridled acceptance and faith in technology. I have been accused, perhaps without cause of promoting technology, of placing too much emphasis on technology. This may be due to our development of Online School these last five years or perhaps it is my personal indulgence of always trying out the latest computer or gadget. I will admit that I believe technology can be and should be a tool that we use to reach this digital generation but it also must be used with great caution and foresight. Let me quote the late Neil Postman from his book Technopoly as we consider the affects of technology on our culture:

“…most people believe technology is a staunch friend. There are two reasons for this. First, technology is a friend. It makes life easier, cleaner and longer. Can anyone ask more of a friend? Second, because of its lengthy, intimate and inevitable relationship with culture, technology does not invite a close examination of its own consequences. It is the kind of friend that asks for trust and obedience, which most people are inclined to give because its gifts are truly bountiful. But, of course, there is a dark side to this friend. Its gifts are not without a heavy cost. Stated in the most dramatic terms, the accusation can be made that the uncontrolled growth of technology destroys the vital sources of our humanity. It creates a culture without a moral foundation. It undermines certain mental processes and social relations that make human life worth living. Technology, in sum, is both friend and enemy.”

We now find ourselves in a world that is seeing the unbridled expansion of technology through the computer chip. In the late 1940’s and 50’s research and development mushroomed in the field of computer technology after the success of the first use of these machines to build the atomic bomb. This rush to technology was further fueled in the cold war and the space race. Companies like IBM were seen to hold the answers to the future. Gordon E. Moore was a co-founder of the technology giant Intel. More than half of all computer chips in the world come from his company. In 1965, Moore observed that the rate of our technological development was doubling every 18 months. In 1975, he expanded this prediction of doubling to every 24 months. He based this “law” on the amount of transistors that can be put on a computer chip at relatively the same size and cost. It has continued to hold true to this day. Every two years, computer power has continued to double and this pace doesn’t seem to be slowing any time soon. To illustrate what this really means I have written a little short story that will illustrate what this idea of doubling really means. This is an excerpt from an audio recording from my book:

Section Three The Digital Future “Technological Progress is like an axe in the hands of a pathological criminal.” Albert Einstein, Letter to a friend, 1917

The Doubling “…Most important principal - exponential thinking.” Rick Warren, Author of the Purpose Driven Life

In a land far away there lived a wealthy king. He was strict with his subjects and exacted very high taxes, but he was honest in his judgment and his word was always true. His son became ill and all of the kingdom’s physicians were unable to find a cure. Word was sent throughout the kingdom that if anyone found a cure the king would reward that subject handsomely, up to one quarter of his kingdom. 

One of the peasants who worked in the castle helping the chief steward with the castle bookkeeping noticed that the food being prepared for the son contained walnuts and he himself had often become ill while eating these nuts. He told the chef to stop using the nuts and in two days, the boy was well. When the king found out who had brought forth the wise council, he called the peasant bean counter to his chambers.  

The king was beside himself when he announced, “You have saved my son and, more importantly, the heir to my wealth and kingdom.” The king continued, “Up to one quarter of my kingdom is at your disposal; what shall I grant you?” 

The peasant replied in a very humble manner, “Great king, you are fair and your word is always sure. I will only ask for a humble portion.” He knew exactly how to stroke the king’s ego, “I ask for a simple thing: that I might feed my son and provide for his needs. Would you, oh great king, please observe that I have brought a chess board to your chambers.” 

The peasant pointed to the corner and sure enough, there was the board. He brought it before the king and continued, “I humbly ask that you would place one bean on the next square of the board each day and have it delivered to my home and storehouse.” He paused for effect as he placed a bean on the corner square. 

 “Is that all you ask?” inquired the king with a puzzled look. 

“One more detail, your majesty,” replied the peasant. “You are a great and mighty king; would you also double the beans each day so that I receive twice the amount from the day before? I beg the king and his court’s indulgence on this matter.” The peasant looked timidly around the chambers and continued. “Today I am given one bean and tomorrow, two, the next day, four and the next day, eight, until the entire board is full.” 

The king looked at his chief assistant who was shaking his head with a bewildered look. He advised, “I think this will more than adequately requite the gentleman, sire.” 

The king turned and pronounced, “Let it be so. As I give my oath and kingdom, so you shall be rewarded with the beans.” He paused the way kings do in such officious pronouncements, “Ah, we shall call it: The Doubling.” 

Papers were prepared and documents signed. The king’s word was law. 

Each day the chief was ordered to come and add the beans. A royal courier was assigned to deliver the beans. Each day brought new banter in the chambers. Even on day ten when the tired chief brought out the 512 beans for delivery, the court broke out in laughter. Some shouted, “Perhaps the peasant can make his son bean soup today!” 

Nobody had any idea what to expect in the coming weeks. On day fourteen, they had their first crisis. The chief could not find enough beans in the palace storehouse to provide the 8,192 beans. For the first time, two weeks into the agreement, the chief wondered what he would do tomorrow. 

Over the next few days, the king’s steward solved the problem by taxing the kingdom’s subjects beans instead of money. Everyone happily handed over their supply. By the third week the crisis returned. On this day, the king’s servants delivered 1,048,576 beans. The king himself was desperately worried about keeping his word. He sent ships and armies out to find every bean within two weeks’ distance of the kingdom. He began to glimpse his fate. 

All was lost on day thirty when the king could not provide the 536,870,912 beans. Realizing that he still had thirty-four squares of the chessboard remaining, he summoned the peasant.               With as much dignity that he could muster, the king said, “I have failed in my oath. I have forsworn my kingdom. I am in your hands” 

“Indeed you are,” retorted the former peasant. “I will have your entire kingdom. I will have all of your goods and I will have your crown.”  

The honest king had no choice. He relinquished his crown, stepped aside and left the kingdom. Rumor has it that he started a bean farm.

Exponential “Doubling” or Back to Moore’s Law

In 2002 the twenty-seventh doubling of the computer chip occurred. The billion-transistor DRAM chip came rolling off the Intel assembly line. Remember Moore’s Law - Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of the technology giant, Intel? More than half of all computer chips in the world come from his company. “Moore’s law” is based on the amount of transistors that can be put on a computer chip at relatively the same size and cost. Every two years, or more precisely, every eighteen months, computer power has continued to double since 1962. This is known as an exponential curve. 

This means that computer chips will be able to hold eight-billion transistors by 2008. When will it slow down?  The curve began back in 1826, when Joseph Henry sent digital signals to his schoolboys in the next room. The first double was in about 1840, when Henry Morris created his code and stole a few patents. In 1868, the transcontinental telegraph cable was laid; double number three, and on through the next century with an invention here and an innovation there; double, double, double, double. In the 1920s and 30s we see doubling in the inventions of radio and television; double. In the 40s, the first digital computers were used; double. Alan Turning’s theories of digital computing resulted in scientists all over the world considering ways that they too could create computers.  Pick it up again in the 1950s, when the properties of silicon were discovered—double. Here the exponential curve began to really take off and double quicker. IBM began to build the first true “Supercomputer” called the 7000 series mainframe—double. IBM began using disks to store data—double. The first true transistor-based computers were made public in 1960—double. In 1964, a much smaller machine is launched for mid-sized laboratories—double. In the mid-sixties, the microprocessor hit the scene—double. Throughout the seventies, we saw the innovation of microcomputers being invented and programmed by guys in their garage—double. Tandy comes out with a desktop computer that has a processor working at 16 kilobytes a second—double. The 8086 processor was invented in the early eighties and more IBM computers became available for about $10,000 a machine—double. Apple launched the Macintosh desktop PC with their famous super-bowl ad—double. In 1986 the Intel introduced the 286 microprocessor chip—double. In 1988 the 386; double. In 1991, the 486—double. Then we saw the Pentiums I, II, III—double—double—double . At the turn of the millennium, the Pentium IVs—double. Since we started using the IV, they have doubled three times. As soon as you buy a computer, no matter how powerful it is, its shelf life for resale is about four months—double. As you can plainly see everything is doubling much quicker. The exponential curve is climbing very quickly right now. 

Thankfully, what is not doubling is all of the support technology necessary for the transistor-laden chip. Motherboards and other hardware components are still catching up to the processor chip. Contrary to what Microsoft and Adobe want you to believe, software is not doubling every two years. Software is the way we take advantage of the computer and make it do what we want. Software is also on an exponential curve but is only doubling about every five years at this point. 

Other technologies and innovations have gone through doubling growth spurts but not so consistently and for such a prolonged period. The railroads doubled through the mid-nineteenth century but began to slow when there were no more places to go. Joel Garreau writes about this in his chapter entitled The Curve.“This astonishing power has become almost free because, unlike the railroads, its expansion does not have the material limits of, say, Grand Central Station. The cost of shipping a ton of grain was halved perhaps three times during the railroads’ heyday. The cost of computing had halved almost 30 times by the early 21st Century. There are only four limits to computer evolution: quantum physics, human ingenuity, the market and our will. Actually, it’s not at all clear that there are any practical limits represented by quantum physics, human ingenuity and the market, at least not in our lifetimes."

Don’t forget our little tale at the beginning of this chapter. On day 30, the king had to surrender his throne. Today is day 29 in computing. Doubling the processor power of today’s computer means a heck-of-a-lot more than the doubling of the IBM monster computer called Deep Blue. This is the computer that beat world chess champion, Gary Kasparov, in 1997. It was upgraded after its 1996 loss against Kasparov. Capable of evaluating 200,000,000 positions per second, it was now twice as fast as the 1996 version. Compare this with today’s monster supercomputer, Blue Gene. It has 1000 times more processing power than its ancestor, Deep Blue. In order to describe how fast and how much it can do, we are making up words such as “teraFLOPS” and “petaFLOPS.” I won’t even try to define these terms. Let’s just say they are really, really big numbers. Okay, I cannot resist: FLOPS are known as Floating point Operations Per Second. A gigaFLOP is a billion FLOPS. Pentium 4 computers can perform at several GFLOPS. TeraFLOPS are a trillion flops and petaFLOPS are a thousand trillion (quadrillion) FLOPS. The first petaFLOPS-capable computer will be rolling out sometime by the end of this year. As I said before, really, really big numbers.

Obviously this makes our job as educators very, very challenging. 2008 is the year of the 30th doubling. With recent global economic downturns perhaps things might slow a bit but I really doubt it. New discoveries in nanotechnology are pushing the doubling dates even further into the future. By the time our kindergarten students graduate we will experience seven more doublings. Consider that when last year’s graduating class was in kindergarten the internet was just becoming available to us. Think of how their world has changed since they began their journey with us. Things are beginning to shift in ways we have never imagined. It is only through God’s wisdom that we will have the foresight to know how to prepare our children. My daily prayer for the parents of my granddaughter is that they will be filled with a spirit of wisdom and revelation in the knowledge of God, the hope of his calling, the great inheritance that he has provided for them and the great power that is inside of her. I pray that they will know exactly how God wants them to prepare her for her future as a disciple in Christ in the year 2027.

We will continue this next week as we talk about the Communication Revolution. We would love to hear from you and I deeply value your comments. If you would like us to mail you a free copy of my book simply send an email to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and let us know what type of an educator you are, home schooler, classroom teacher, school administrator, or interested parent. Please let us know how you heard about the podcast and, of course, please include your mailing address. Thank you for listening and thank you for your commitment to discipleship-based Christian education.